TakarékBank elevates 2015 GDP forecast to 3.3%
Takarékbank, the central bank of savings cooperatives in Hungary, projects 3.3% GDP growth in Hungary this year, Gergely Suppan, the bankʼs senior analyst said yesterday.
The bank projected 3.2% GDP growth for 2015 in its March forecast. For next year, Takarékbank forecasts GDP growth of 2.5%, Suppan added. The bankʼs analysts also see inflation slightly higher, at 0.4% on average for 2015. However, he added, they do not expect this to influence the central bankʼs rate-cutting cycle.
Suppan said investments could continue to grow modestly in spite of the weaker first-quarter figures, but consumption could increasingly become the main engine of growth in the coming quarters. Employment is expected to sink to 7.2% on average this year, Suppan added. He said inflation could accelerate to close to the central bankʼs 3% inflation target by the end of 2016. Therefore, Takarékbank expects the national bank to end its rate-cutting cycle at 1.50% and not begin raising the base rate until the last quarter of 2016, he added.
Takarékbank’s analysts project a 2.2% general government deficit in 2015 and 2% in 2016. András Oszlay, department head at the bank, said the forint is expected to remain in the 305-315 range against the euro in the long term, ending the year 2015 at 300.
SUPPORT THE BUDAPEST BUSINESS JOURNAL
Producing journalism that is worthy of the name is a costly business. For 27 years, the publishers, editors and reporters of the Budapest Business Journal have striven to bring you business news that works, information that you can trust, that is factual, accurate and presented without fear or favor.
Newspaper organizations across the globe have struggled to find a business model that allows them to continue to excel, without compromising their ability to perform. Most recently, some have experimented with the idea of involving their most important stakeholders, their readers.
We would like to offer that same opportunity to our readers. We would like to invite you to help us deliver the quality business journalism you require. Hit our Support the BBJ button and you can choose the how much and how often you send us your contributions.