Rates are expected to rise at least 25bp by MNB

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Market analysts polled by Reuters expect the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) to raise rates 25 basis points at a meeting on September 25, according to the latest Reuters poll published on Thursday. The survey of market analysts produced exactly the same results as a poll of currency dealers: eight of the fourteen analysts forecast a 25bp rate rise to 7.50% and the remaining six were split evenly between a 50bp raise and no rate change. The analysts said the base rate would peak at around 8.00% or 8.25% sometime in the H1 of next year, then slip back to 7.5% by the end on 2007. The analysts forecast annual average inflation of 5.2% in 2006, putting year-end twelve-month CPI at 6%, well over the 3.5% inflation in August. They put year-end inflation in 2007 at 4.7%. (Mti-Eco)

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