ADVERTISEMENT

London economists predict today’s CPI number will be zero

Food

Photo by Pixabay

Hungary’s headline year-on-year consumer inflation is likely to have accelerated to around zero in the last months, as inflation was driven especially low last year due to utility price cuts, London-based emerging markets economists said ahead of today’s data release of consumer price figures, according to MTI. 

The CPI has been in negative figures for much of the year. Forecasts by the London analysts ranged narrowly between -0.1% and +0.1%, with the consensus averaging at 0.0%. Economists at Morgan Stanley said they expect inflation to have moved to +0.1% in October after a -0.4% drop in September.

They said this is expected to be the first of three large sequential rises in inflation that should take the real policy rate to around zero by year-end, with year-on-year CPI likely to come in at 1.3% in December.

“It is worth keeping in mind that the (Hungarian National Bank) has been preparing the market for negative real interest rates and that this rise in inflation is well anticipated by analysts, so it should not create large surprises,” Morgan Stanley’s London-based analysts added, according to MTI.

At the opposite end of the narrow forecast range, JP Morgan’s economists said they expect a -0.1% year-on-year headline reading from last month, MTI said. This would still be an acceleration compared to September.

ADVERTISEMENT

Fiscal, monetary policy partnership needed to rein in CPI - ... Analysis

Fiscal, monetary policy partnership needed to rein in CPI - ...

Parl't votes to phase out savings coops integration framewor... Parliament

Parl't votes to phase out savings coops integration framewor...

Roche Szolgáltató appoints P&C business partner lead Appointments

Roche Szolgáltató appoints P&C business partner lead

FAO–Food Bank convoy delivers food to those in need City

FAO–Food Bank convoy delivers food to those in need

SUPPORT THE BUDAPEST BUSINESS JOURNAL

Producing journalism that is worthy of the name is a costly business. For 27 years, the publishers, editors and reporters of the Budapest Business Journal have striven to bring you business news that works, information that you can trust, that is factual, accurate and presented without fear or favor.
Newspaper organizations across the globe have struggled to find a business model that allows them to continue to excel, without compromising their ability to perform. Most recently, some have experimented with the idea of involving their most important stakeholders, their readers.
We would like to offer that same opportunity to our readers. We would like to invite you to help us deliver the quality business journalism you require. Hit our Support the BBJ button and you can choose the how much and how often you send us your contributions.