IMF, Erste Group forecast Hungary GDP growth in 2014

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In its newly-released World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Hungary’s economy will grow by 2.0% in 2014, matching the central government’s projection; the European Commission has placed the estimate at 2.1%. 

The new figure was raised from a 1.3% projection six months earlier.

Despite the basic positivity, the IMF nevertheless warned that “still-high external vulnerabilities, although declining, could weigh on growth” for Hungary and that “uncertainties associated with the resolution of foreign currency-denominated mortgages” was still of concern.

Further forecasts by the IMF for Hungary included GDP growth of 1.7% in 2015; inflation rates of 0.9% and 3.0% respectively for ’14 and ’15; the current-account balance dropping to 2.7% of GDP in ’14; and an unemployment rate of 9.4% this year.

Erste Group forecasts CEE region GDP growth
Erste Group analysts this week released a report forecasting GDP growth/retraction for 2014. On the whole, the analysis reckons that among countries where Erste currently does business (Hungary, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Turkey), year-on-year growth of 2.4% is expected.

The report labeled “The improvement of the situation of real economy toward the end of 2013” “a pleasant surprise,” going on to state that almost all of the eight aforementioned economies “increased their GDP over expectations.” For 2014, Erste Group expects increases of 3.1% in Poland; 3% in Romania; 2.3% in Turkey; 2% in the Czech Republic; 1.9% in Hungary; 1.7% in Slovakia; 1% in Serbia; and just over the breakeven point for Croatia.

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