Analysts put August CPI at 5.8%-6%


Hungary's twelve-month consumer inflation is likely to have remained flat in August compared to the previous month, but annual average inflation could accelerate to 5.6%-6%, according to analysts polled by business daily Napi Gazdaság.

CPI came out at 5.8% in July.

The Central Statistics Office (KSH) will publish August inflation figures on Tuesday.

Most analysts expect inflation to accelerate further in the coming months, adding that CPI could get stuck at around 6% over several months due to higher seasonal food prices in the autumn. Next year's outlook will be determined by tax changes as the 2013 central budget will probably have to be amended, so the inflationary curve could be hit by further shocks.

Orsolya Nyeste of Erste Bank forecast 6% inflation for August, level with the analysts' consensus, based on the impact of higher petrol prices on the one hand, and an ongoing seasonal fall in clothing prices on the other. She said she expected food prices to fall slightly for seasonal reasons, adding that food prices will definitely push inflation higher from the autumn months.

Sándor Jobbágy of CIB Bank said he expected the seasonal effects of food and clothing prices and disinflation among consumer durables to be offset by rises in other categories in August. He put twelve-month inflation at around 6% for September and close to 5% for December.

Gergely Gabler of Equilor said August CPI could rise to 5.9% from 5.8% in July as rising fuel prices could offset the forint strengthening and seasonally lower clothing prices. He said he expected food prices to have increased rather than fallen. He put December CPI at 4.8%, and annual average inflation at as low as 5.3%.

Emerging market analysts based in London put CPI at 6.0%-6.2%, citing higher food and fuel prices.


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