Analysts: Hungary CPI to accelerate despite soft March data
Hungary's consumer inflation is set to jump higher later this year on the back of base effects stemming from the previous utility price cuts, London-based emerging markets economists said after softer-than-expected CPI data for March had been released on Friday. Consumer prices rose just 0.1% last month from March 2013 after a similar year-on-year headline CPI print in February. London-based analysts had expected a slight acceleration in March, with forecasts varying in a narrow 0.2%-0.4% range.
Economists at Goldman Sachs said after the data release that they still expect inflation to increase moderately from here in the second quarter, albeit from a lower level, as base effects reduce the disinflationary impact of the utility price cuts.
“We expect inflation to stay below 1% for most of the year but expect a sharper acceleration at end-2014 to early 2015, as base effects related to the second round of utility price cuts push headline higher (...) Barring additional regulatory price cuts, inflation should reach the (3% medium-term) target in 2015.”
Analysts at JP Morgan said that inflation is likely to drift higher in the coming months and will jump above 2% year-on-year in December.
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