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Analysts forecast negative CPI for coming months

Food

After many were surprised by the 0.2% year-on-year drop in Hungary’s consumer price index, analysts are now saying that the rate of inflation is expected to remain in negative territory for the coming months, but it is likely to be positive by yearʼs end, according to a report in Hungarian economic daily Világgazdaság.

Monthly consumer price index. Corresponding period of previous year equals 100. (Source: Central Statistical Office)

Gergely Suppan, an analyst at Takarékbank, reportedly said the unexpectedly low price increase of food and services was the most surprising element of the new data. He said that for the next few months the rate is expected to remain in the negative, and bounce back to around +2% this fall, possibly reaching +2.1% by the end of the year. He added that the anticipated +3% target may not be reached by 2018. 

Gergely Ürmössy, leading macro analyst at Erste, told the portal that the rate should return to positive in August. He added that he expects CPI to increase by 0.6% on average this year, while the average increase next year could reach 2%.

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