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Analyst: MNB could cut base rate to 1.5%

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Analysts at CIB, the Hungarian subsidiary of Italian Intesa Sanpaolo, anticipate that the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) will cut the current base rate of 1.95% to its lowest at 1.5% by the end of summer, CIB chief analyst Mariann Trippon said yesterday.

CIB analysts expect the MNB to start tightening policy in the first half of 2016, she noted. Trippon foresees the weakening of the forint against other currencies in the upcoming one and a half years.

She said that the bank’s analysts expect the forint to be around 305-315 to the euro for the rest of the year. Trippon put average annual inflation around 0% for this year. The MNBʼs 3% mid-term inflation target could be reached by the end of 2016 at the earliest, she added.

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