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What shapes GDP trend in 2012

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Demand on export markets, farm sector output and banks' propensity to lend will have a big effect on the path Hungary's GDP takes this year, analysts told MTI on Friday, after the Central Statistics Office published a detailed reading of Q4 GDP from last year.

Hungary's GDP grew 1.4% in Q4 from the same period a year earlier, driven by industrial exports and the farm sector. GDP growth was 1.7% for the full year.

Raiffeisen Bank chief analyst Zoltán Török said last year's farm sector performance was unlikely to be repeated in 2012 and eurozone economies are expected to contract 0.5% this year. He added that expected government austerity measures would have an unfavorable effect on domestic consumption and investments and cause Hungary's GDP to fall half a percent too.

Mariann Trippon, CIB Bank's head analyst, said Hungary's economy was expected to grow a slight 0.3% in 2012, but only if the country reaches an agreement on a precautionary financial support package from the International Monetary Fund and the European Union in the first half of the year.

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