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Forint fairly stable on interbank market

History

The forint was trading at 315.35 to the euro late Monday on the interbank forex market, a tad up from final quotes at 315.40 on Friday and 315.69 on Sunday. Also at 315.69 to the euro early Monday, the forint moved between 314.73 and 315.96, after an eight-day high at 313.14 Friday intraday.

The Hungarian currency weathered the unexpected shock of Polandʼs downgrade on Friday by Standard & Poorʼs relatively well. While still investment grade Polish yields jumped to junk-rated Hungaryʼs level, analysts see this could make Hungarian sovereigns more attractive, especially if long-expected upgrades for Hungary might finally come through this year following disappointments last year.

But some pressure is also felt on the forint in the wake of a 20% oil price fall in the last two weeks, as it could prompt Hungaryʼs central bank to chip in some more easing sooner than later to try to fend off the risk of disinflation or deflation returning.

The forint traded at 289.67 to the dollar, down from final quotes at 288.90 on Friday and 288.95 on Sunday. On Monday, it moved between 288.73 and 290.20, after a more than two-week high at 285.80 early Friday. On November 27, it fell to a third more than fifteen-year low within a month at 295.76.

The forint was quoted at 288.10 to the Swiss franc, down from 287.13 late Friday, but slightly up from 288.40 late Sunday. Its range on Monday was 287.19 to 288.59, a five-day low, after a more than six-week high on Friday intraday. Since a crash to an all-time low at 378.49 to the franc on January 15, 2015, when the Swiss central bank scrapped its cap of 1.20 to the euro, it reached the highest at 281.07 on February 26, 2015.

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