The volume of industrial output declined by an unadjusted 1.4% year-on-year in June 2019, according to a first estimate of data from the Central Statistical Office (KSH) published on Wednesday. Based on working day-adjusted data, however, production grew by 4.1%.
The significant difference between the raw and working day-adjusted figures is due to the fact that there were two working days fewer in June 2019 than in June 2018, the KSH noted.
The majority of manufacturing subsections contributed to the slowdown. The rate of growth slowed in the automotive sector, which carries the largest weight, as well as in the manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco, and in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products.
Industrial output in June – according to seasonally and working day-adjusted indices – was 1.8% below the level of the previous month.
In January-June 2019, output was 5.4% higher than in the first six months of last year.
A second estimate of industrial production for June, and for the first half of 2019, will be published on August 13.
Speaking to state news wire MTI, analyst Gergely Suppan of Takarékbank said the disappointing June industrial output data show that Hungaryʼs industry follows weakening European and German business trends while still outperforming them, with support from growing production of new car models, the installation of new export capacities, and strong domestic demand.
Takarékbank analysts forecast full-year industrial output growth of 5.5-6% in 2019, compared to 3.6% last year.
Péter Virovácz of ING Bank said the latest industrial output data suggest a slowdown in the pace of economic growth, with industrial output growth decelerating to 5.5% in the second quarter. All signs show that GDP growth peaked in the first quarter and a gradual slowdown in the pace of growth is already under way, he added.