Disappointing industrial output data could augur recession - analysts


Lower than expected industrial output in August could augur the start of a recession, analysts told MTI on Thursday.

Hungary's unadjusted industrial output climbed 4.4% in August from the same period a year earlier, but workday-adjusted output edged down 0.4%, the Central Statistics Office (KSH) said in the morning. Seasonally- and workday-adjusted output was down 1.3% in a month-on-month comparison.

Gergely Suppan of Takarékbank said the data show GDP could contract quarter-on-quarter as soon as the third quarter. He projected modest growth in the coming months with a pickup in December because of a low base.

Next year, industrial output could get a boost from the start of production at plants German carmakers Daimler and Opel are building in Hungary, he added.

He put full-year industrial output growth at 5.5-6% for 2011 and 6.5% for 2012.

Zoltán Reczey of Buda-Cash Brokerage also said a recession could not be excluded in light of the data. Adjusted year-on-year output fell for the first time since December 2009, he noted.


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