Hungary acceleration indicator down 0.24% in August

Analysis

The last time acceleration indicator GYIA, a measure of ten different economic and financial indicators compiled by business daily Világgazdaság showed a similar plummetting figure was in spring 2009, at the height of the global crisis. The paper concludes that recovery from crisis has come to an end and the chances for another recession are growing.

Eight of the measure's ten components of GYIA deteriorated, decreasing the indicator by 0.24% in August after dropping 0.11% the previous month .

Rising real interest rates, and the growing difference between long-term and short-term government securities yields point towards a slowdown, and the money supply indicator and the BUX index also dragged the GYIA down.

Germany's shaken business confidence had a negative influence on the GYIA. Surprisingly, the two indicators moving upwards were the stock of consumer loans and the monthly change in real wages, even though these tend to move in tandem with domestic demand. However, domestic industrial sales and the average time spent looking for a job deteriorated, factors also exercising and impact on consumption, the paper notes.

The GYIA measures non-food retail sales, real interest rates, the real value of the Budapest Stock Exchange's main BUX index, industrial output, stock of vehicle loans, the yield curve for government securities, money supply and real wages.

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