Hungarian GDP stagnated in 2012 Q3, revised data shows

Analysis

Revised data published by the Central Statistics Office (KSH) on Wednesday show Hungary's economy came out of a recession in the third quarter of last year, earlier than previously thought. Hungary's economy contracted quarter-on-quarter in both Q1 and Q2 of last year, meeting the criteria for the generally accepted definition of a recession. Data published by KSH earlier suggested GDP fell quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and Q4 as well, by 0.4% and 0.9%, respectively. But the revised data released on Wednesday show GDP stagnated in Q3, meaning an end to the recession. KSH also revised the quarter-on-quarter data for Q1 and Q4, saying the economy contracted by 1.0% in Q1, instead of 1.4%, and by 0.4% in Q4, instead of 0.9%. The office did not revise any year-on-year figures for 2012. In a first reading of data for the first quarter of this year, KSH said GDP rose 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, according to seasonally- and calendar year-adjusted data. In a year-on-year comparison, GDP fell an unadjusted 0.9% and was down 0.3% according to calendar year-adjusted data. KSH blamed the decline on the industrial sector, noting that the farm and construction sectors expanded in the period. Adjusted to make the data comparable with other European Union member states, GDP fell a seasonally- and calendar year-adjusted 0.3% year-on-year in Q1, slowing from a 2.8% decline in Q4. Hungary's GDP fell an unadjusted 1.7% for the full year in 2012. The economy grew by 1.6% in 2011 and 1.3% in 2010.

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