Analysts see jobless rate climbing on seasonal effect in coming months

Analysis

Fresh unemployment data for December published on Tuesday was more or less in line with expectations, but the jobless rate is likely to climb in the coming months because of seasonal factors, analysts told MTI.

 The average unemployment rate in Hungary was 10.7% in the 15-74 age group in October-December, inching up from 10.6% in September-November but falling from 10.8% in the same period a year earlier, data from the Central Statistics Office (KSH) show.

Zoltan Arokszallasi of Erste Bank said the data was just a hair worse than expected. He added that the indicators would probably show a deterioration in the coming months because of the winter.

He said spring would see a fall in the number of unemployed, but added that the improvement would be slight because of the state of the economy. He put unemployment in 2012 at around 11%.

TakarekBank’s Gergely Suppan said the October-December data was in line with expectations. He added that employment was likely to fall in the coming months because of the seasonal effect.

He put the unemployment rate at 10.8% for 2012.

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