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Analysts surprised at upward revision of Q3 GDP growth

Analysts polled by MTI-Econews expressed surprise over both the fact and especially the size of the 0.3 percentage-point upward revision of the Q3 GDP growth figure by the Central Statistical Office (KSH), and still do not expect full-year growth to reach 4%.

As reported today, both the unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted, reconciled figures were revised up a hefty 0.3 percentage points in a second reading of data published by the KSH Tuesday, compared to the first flash estimate released on November 14. The KSH indicated this was mainly due to the better-than-expected performance of market-based services.

Péter Virovácz of ING Bank said Q4 growth could reach 4.2%, but that this still leaves full-year growth slightly below 4%. He noted that the difference between import and export growth was the biggest since the start of 2003, reflecting higher than expected consumption propping up imports.

Erste Bankʼs Gergely Ürmössy said the bank has raised its 2017 growth forecast from 3.7% to 3.9% in the light of the big KSH revision.

Dávid Németh of K&H Bank also projected 3.9% growth this year, to be followed by 3.5% in 2018.